JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has shared his predictions for the U.S. economy, including a chance of “something worse” than a recession. “There are storm clouds,” the executive said, citing interest rates, QT, oil, Ukraine, war, and China.
JPMorgan Chief Jamie Dimon’s Economic Forecasts
JPMorgan’s chairman and chief executive officer, Jamie Dimon, reportedly shared his predictions about where the U.S. economy is headed during a client call last week, Yahoo Finance reported Saturday.
While noting that the U.S. economy is strong, with consumers’ balance sheets and businesses in good shape, the executive emphasized that “you have to think differently” when forecasting. The JPMorgan chief described: “What is out there? There are storm clouds. Rates, QT, oil, Ukraine, war, China.”
Dimon shared: “If I had to put odds: soft landing 10%. Harder landing, mild recession, 20%, 30%.” He added:
Harder recession, 20%, 30%. And maybe something worse at 20% to 30%.
“It is a bad mistake to say ‘here is my single point forecast,’” he clarified.
His predictions echoed what he said in June when he warned that an economic hurricane is “coming our way.” He advised investors to brace themselves.
While Dimon sees a possibility of something worse than a recession, he stressed during a recent visit to JPMorgan Chase’s Olneyville bank branch: “Whatever the future brings, JPMorgan is prepared.”
Various analysts have predicted that the U.S. economy could be in a recession this year. Bank of America’s head of U.S. economics, Michael Gapen, told Fox Business Monday that there is a high chance of a mild recession this year. He expects the Federal Reserve to inadvertently trigger a downturn with its war on inflation. “This cycle probably ends in a mild downturn … How do I come to that? It’s basically just history. It’s really hard to achieve a soft landing,” the analyst opined.
Goldman Sachs’ economist David Mericle detailed in a client note Sunday: “Our broad conclusion is that there is a feasible but difficult path to a soft landing, though several factors beyond the Fed’s control can ease or complicate that path and raise or lower the odds of success.”