climate, cop26, climate change
The research suggested plans by some energy majors to decarbonise are not compatible with the Paris Agreement temperature goals.

Global decarbonisation scenarios envisioned by oil and gas majors are incompatible with the Paris climate deal temperature goals aimed at averting devastating heating, according to research published Tuesday.

The landmark 2015 accord saw nations commit to limit planetary heating to “well below” two degrees Celsius (3.6 Farenheit) above pre-industrial levels and to work towards a safer 1.5-C warming cap.

Writing in the journal Nature Communications, an international team of experts analysed six emissions scenarios from three European energy giants—Equinor, BP and Shell—as well as those produced by the International Energy Agency.

They then compared the analysed pathways to scenarios outlined in a special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on 1.5C of warming.

The team used these to evaluate peak and end-of-century temperatures under each scenario, noting that average global temperatures may decline by 2100 in some scenarios after peaking.

They also assessed the underlying energy system changes that drive emissions and could lead to a given scenario meeting—or failing to meet—the Paris temperature goals.

“Most of the scenarios we evaluated would be classified as inconsistent with the Paris Agreement as they fail to limit warming to ‘well below 2C’, let alone 1.5C, and would exceed the 1.5C warming limit by a significant margin,” said Robert Brecha of the Climate Analytics think tank and co-lead author of the study.

“Energy system transformation is critical to reaching the Paris Agreement warming limit, and decision makers need sound and transparent scientific assessments. This paper adds to that transparency.”

‘Catastrophic impacts’

The analysis found that Shell’s Sky scenario would lead to warming of 1.81C by 2069—a far cry from 1.5C.

A Shell spokeswoman told AFP that the Sky pathway was just one of several envisaged by the company.

The team responsible for modelling scenarios “makes assessments based on plausible assumptions and quantifications, which are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes, let alone our energy transition plan”, she added.

Equinor’s Rebalance scenario would see warming peak at 1.73C above pre-industrial levels by 2060, according to the study.

BP’s Rapid scenario would see peak warming of 1.73C by 2058, while its Net Zero scenario would see median warming peak at 1.65C, the analysis found.

Equinor declined to comment, while BP did not respond to a comment request.

Only the IEA’s Net Zero 2050 pathway is fully aligned with the Paris agreement’s 1.5C goal, the authors concluded.

“Fossil fuel companies claim that we can continue to burn oil and gas while keeping to the 1.5C warming limit, and they cite their own scenarios as justification,” said Bill Hare, CEO and Senior Scientist at Climate Analytics.

“But our research shows that their pathways would bust the Paris Agreement. Even temporarily exceeding the 1.5C warming would lead to catastrophic impacts and severely weaken our ability to adapt to climate change.”

© 2022 AFP

Citation: Oil majors’ climate visions ‘inconsistent’ with Paris targets (2022, August 16) retrieved 16 August 2022 from https://phys.org/news/2022-08-oil-majors-climate-visions-inconsistent.html This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.

TECH NEWS RELATED

Li Auto lowers Q3 delivery guidance amid supply chain problems

Chinese electric vehicle maker Li Auto on Monday lowered its guidance for the number of vehicles it would ship between July and the end of September from “between 27,000 and 29,000” to 25,500, citing issues with ongoing supply chain constraints. Demand for the company’s EVs remains strong, according to ...

View more: Li Auto lowers Q3 delivery guidance amid supply chain problems

Tata Motors set to launch Tiago's EV variant tomorrow

Tata Motors will soon launch EV variant of its popular hatchback Tata Tiago. The auto giant already leads the EV segment in the country with models such as the Tata Nexon EV and the Tata Tigor EV. The Tata Tiago is also the first premium hatchback to be offered as ...

View more: Tata Motors set to launch Tiago's EV variant tomorrow

Musk, Twitter CEO delay questioning ahead of October trial

ETtechTesla CEO Elon Musk won a reprieve from questioning by Twitter lawyers Monday, according to several press reports. The billionaire had been scheduled to give a deposition in his high-stakes court fight with Twitter over whether he has to follow through with his agreement to buy the social platform for ...

View more: Musk, Twitter CEO delay questioning ahead of October trial

Bitgreen secures $5M in crowdfunding to launch the premier Polkadot climate-investment platform

Bitgreen, the company building blockchain’s epicenter for sustainability, prepares to launch the first phase of its layer-1 network built to empower climate-action initiatives. The company’s operations follow a fully subscribed $5 million Reg CF crowdfunding raise on the Republic platform, reaching its goal in under four hours. After a year of development, the ...

View more: Bitgreen secures $5M in crowdfunding to launch the premier Polkadot climate-investment platform

Meta to make it easier to switch between FB, Instagram accounts

ETtech Users will now also be able to create an account with their existing Facebook or Instagram login and use it to sign up for additional accounts and profiles. Meta announced that it is testing new ways for people to more easily switch between and create new accounts and profiles ...

View more: Meta to make it easier to switch between FB, Instagram accounts

Blackpink’s 'Born Pink' looking at No. 1 at Billboard 200

Blackpink performs at the 2022 MTV Video Music Awards at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, on Aug 28, 2022. (Reuters photo) SEOUL: Blackpink’s new album “Born Pink” is looking at No. 1 in the US Billboard 200 chart as the first K-pop girl group act. According to ...

View more: Blackpink’s 'Born Pink' looking at No. 1 at Billboard 200

AC Ventures partners CTO-as-a-service firm 8020cto to boost Southeast Asian tech teams

8020cto, a CTO-as-a-service company, has partnered with Southeast Asian venture capital firm AC Ventures by committing to provide engineering leadership solutions for the firm’s portfolio companies. 8020cto said in a statement its team includes software engineering executives from the global head offices of top software companies such as Uber, ...

View more: AC Ventures partners CTO-as-a-service firm 8020cto to boost Southeast Asian tech teams

Climate Group launches EV100+ to target polluting trucks 

Building on the success of the EV100 initiative, the Climate Group has launched EV100+, a new road transport leadership commitment with the aim of decarbonising medium to heavy duty vehicles. Five globally recognised businesses – IKEA, Unilever, JSW Steel Limited, A.P. Moller – Maersk and GeoPost/DPDgroup – are the ...

View more: Climate Group launches EV100+ to target polluting trucks 

Alleged Hacker Behind Optus Attack Promises Not to Leak User's Data Anymore After Asking For Ransom

“Erasure” – New Discovery Could Be the Key to Practical Quantum Computing

The fundamental problem with gravity and quantum physics

New WhatsApp feature allows users to join calls using a link

Sony SRS-XE200 Review | A well-rounded speaker that is built to last

Bosses scared that employees slack off while WFH: Satya Nadella

Airline Wi-Fi Not Working? Refunds Might Soon Be Required

New Roomba Robot can Vacuum, Mop Floors in Single Cleaning Job

TikTok Faces £27-M Fine Over Child Privacy Violations in UK

Ford China creates new subsidiary as it ramps up EV push

8 US states sue crypto platform Nexo for lying to investors

TikTok owner ByteDance approves US$3 billion share buy-back, its first for investors, despite some opposition

OTHER TECH NEWS

Top Car News Car News